ABSTRACT
In recent decades, new epidemics have seriously endangered people’s lives and are now the leading cause of death in the world. The prevention of pandemic diseases has therefore become a top priority today. However, effective prevention remains a difficult challenge due to factors such as transmission mechanisms, lack of documentation of clinical outcomes, and population control. To this end, this paper proposes a susceptible-exposed-infected-quarantined (hospital or home)-recovered (SEIQHR) model based on human intervention strategies to simulate and predict recent outbreak transmission trends and peaks in Changchun, China. In this study, we introduce Levy operator and random mutation mechanism to reduce the possibility of the algorithm falling into a local optimum. The algorithm is then used to identify the parameters of the model optimally. The validity and adaptability of the proposed model are verified by fitting experiments to the number of infections in cities in China that had COVID-19 outbreaks in previous periods (Nanjing, Wuhan, and Xi’an), where the peaks and trends obtained from the experiments largely match the actual situation. Finally, the model is used to predict the direction of the disease in Changchun, China, for the coming period. The results indicated that the number of COVID-19 infections in Changchun would peak around April 3 and continue to decrease until the end of the outbreak. These predictions can help the government plan countermeasures to reduce the expansion of the epidemic. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND: Mindfulness has become increasingly popular, and positive outcomes have been reported for mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs) in reducing stress. These findings make room for innovative perspectives on how MBIs could be applied, for instance through mobile health (mHealth). OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to investigate whether a nonguided mindfulness mobile app can decrease perceived stress in a nonclinical Dutch population over the course of 8 weeks, with follow-up at 6 months. METHODS: A randomized controlled trial was performed to compare an experimental group that made use of a structured 8-week mHealth mindfulness program and a control group after 8 weeks, with follow-up after 6 months. Participants were recruited via a national television program. The primary outcome measure was perceived stress as measured by the Perceived Stress Scale, secondary outcomes were symptoms of burnout (measured using the visual analog scale [VAS]) and psychological symptoms (measured using the Four-Dimensional Symptom Questionnaire [4DSQ] at follow-up). Outcomes were analyzed using a multilevel regression model. RESULTS: At baseline, 587 respondents were included. Results showed no postintervention differences between groups for the level of perceived stress. With regard to the secondary outcome measures, the VAS for emotional exhaustion and physical exhaustion showed significantly lower scores for the experimental group after 8 weeks (P=.04 and P=.01, respectively), but not at follow-up. There were no differences between groups for psychological symptoms measured using the 4DSQ. CONCLUSIONS: These findings do not support our hypothesis that using the mindfulness app would reduce stress levels. However, our findings related to diminished exhaustion at 8 weeks are encouraging and require further investigation. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT05246800; https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT05246800.